Election Trends

White House

• Biden leading in polls, but 14 states (209/ 39% of electoral votes) still toss ups. slide 5
• “Silent vote” could potentially be more of an issue in 2020 than it was in 2016. slide 6
• Biden leading in polls by 7%, unchanged over last week. slide 7
• Biden leading in betting markets by 15%, +1% over last week. slide 9
• Trump trailing by 4% in key battlegrounds, unchanged over last week . slide 10
• Trump’s approval rating is 44%, below historically significant 45%. slide 11
• 5-day change in new Covid-19 cases is 159k (vs. 162k last week), a potential tailwind for Trump. slide 12
• New Covid-19 cases are trending lower in battlegrounds, a potential tailwind for Trump. slide 13

Senate + House

• Republicans with 46 seats “locked or likely” vs. 46 for Democrats, but 8 seats still in play – slide 14
• Democrats leading Senate election race in betting markets by 9%, -1% over last week – slide 15
• Democrats winning House is a foregone conclusion per betting markets (leading by 68%) – slide 16
• Democrats have a 54% chance of a “blue sweep” per betting markets, +1% over last week – slide 17

Source: ¹ Cato Institute https://www.cato.org/publications/survey-reports/poll-62-americans-say-they-have-political-views-theyre-afraid-share
² https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/1292288/US-election-2020-donald-trump-poll-results-democracy-institute-of-america

Source: ¹ : https//joebiden.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/UNITY-TASK-FORCE-RECOMMENDATIONS.pdf

² https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/biden-transcript.pdf

³ https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/bernie-sanders-acknowledging-progressive-disagreements-platform-joe-biden/story?id=72396119

• Repealing the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) individual income tax reductions for those earning over $400,000 and restoring the top marginal income tax rate to 39.6 percent from today’s 37 percent. The Section 199A deduction would also be phased out for those earning over $400,000.
• Taxing capital gains at ordinary income tax rates—up from a top rate of 23.8 percent today—for those earning over $1 million. Biden would also eliminate step-up in basis for inherited assets with capital gains, instead taxing those gains at death.
• Capping the value of itemized deductions to 28 percent for those in higher marginal tax brackets and restoring the Pease limitation on itemized deductions for those with taxable income above $400,000.
• Raising the corporate income tax from 21 percent to 28 percent.
• Imposing a 15 percent minimum book tax on corporations with $100 million or greater in income.
• Doubling the tax rate on Global Intangible Low Tax Income (GILTI) earned by foreign subsidiaries of U.S. firms, from 10.5 percent to 21 percent.
• Imposing the 12.4 percent Social Security payroll tax on wage and self-employment income earned above $400,000.

Source: ¹ https://taxfoundation.org/reviewing-joe-bidens-tax-vision/