Gold has trailed stocks, but outpaced bonds for more than 50 years
After strong returns out of the pandemic lows, gold has been a notable underperformer since the vaccine announcements
U.S. large cap stocks-to-gold ratio for over 100 years
Priced in gold, stocks are yet to regain Tech Bubble highs
Assuming the price of gold tracks global monetary base per capita over the long term implies expected returns over 6%
Real yields, which historically have had a strong inverse correlation with the price of gold, are at the lowest level of the last 40 years…
…but the relationship between real yields and gold appears to be breaking down, potentially as investors move to perceived digital safe-havens
Despite the year-to-year volatility, longer-term returns have been surprisingly consistent across multiple currencies
The longer-term bull market appears intact despite drawdown across several major currencies
Gold looks cheap relative to U.S. stocks and doesn’t look overbought relative to Treasuries
Gold miners still look very cheap relative to bullion
Gold futures sentiment not overly bullish as gold price consolidates
Silver sentiment trending lower as price drops below support
High demand for physical hints at increased perceived systemic risk
Possible local low in gold relative to silver
Assuming 3/8/2021 was the low, this last correction was run-of-the-mill relative to historical bull market declines
Gold has had mixed, but generally positive returns during stock market declines
Gold has mixed historical returns during significant market events
Gold has a decent track record as an inflation hedge, but it is by no means a portfolio panacea during these episodes
Case study 1: gold returns during stock market declines
Case study 2: gold returns during significant market events
Case study 3: gold returns during periods of rising inflation
Magnus Financial Group LLC (“Magnus”) did not produce and bears no responsibility for any part of this report whatsoever, including but not limited to any macroeconomic views, inaccuracies or any errors or omissions. Research and data used in the presentation have come from third-party sources that Magnus has not independently verified presentation and the opinions expressed are not by Magnus or its employees and are current only as of the time made and are subject to change without notice.
This report may include estimates, projections or other forward-looking statements, however, due to numerous factors, actual events may differ substantially from those presented. The graphs and tables making up this
report have been based on unaudited, third-party data and performance information provided to us by one or more commercial databases. Except for the historical information contained in this report, certain matters are
forward-looking statements or projections that are dependent upon risks and uncertainties, including but not limited to factors and considerations such as general market volatility, global economic risk, geopolitical risk, currency risk and other country-specific factors, fiscal and monetary policy, the level of interest rates, security-specific risks, and historical market segment or sector performance relationships as they relate to the business and economic cycle.
Additionally, please be aware that past performance is not a guide to the future performance of any manager or strategy, and that the performance results and historical information provided displayed herein may have
been adversely or favorably impacted by events and economic conditions that will not prevail in the future. Therefore, it should not be inferred that these results are indicative of the future performance of any strategy,
index, fund, manager or group of managers. Index benchmarks contained in this report are provided so that performance can be compared with the performance of well-known and widely recognized indices. Index results
assume the re-investment of all dividends and interest.
The information provided is not intended to be, and should not be construed as, investment, legal or tax advice nor should such information contained herein be construed as a recommendation or advice to purchase or sell any security, investment, or portfolio allocation. An investor should consult with their financial advisor to determine the appropriate investment strategies and investment vehicles. Investment decisions should be made based on the investor’s specific financial needs and objectives, goals, time horizon and risk tolerance. This presentation makes no implied or express recommendations concerningthe way any client’s accounts should or would be handled, as appropriate investment decisions depend upon the client’s specific investment objectives.
Investment advisory services offered through Magnus; securities offered through third party custodial relationships. More information about Magnus can be found on its Form ADV at www.adviserinfo.sec.gov.
This report is intended solely for the use of its recipient. There is a fee associated with the access to this report and the information and materials presented herein. Re-distribution or republication of this report and its contents are prohibited. Expert use is implied.