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Introductory Financial Review

Market Commentary – Q4, 2025

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The “K” Divide

  • Markets ended 2025 on a strong note, with not one major asset class ending the year in the red. U.S. large-cap stocks ended the year up 18%. U.S. small-cap stocks gained 13%, and U.S. intermediate-term bonds ended 2025 up 7%.
  • Inflation cooled, with headline CPI easing to 2.7% year-over-year, driven largely by slowing shelter costs. The report surprised economists, with none of the Bloomberg-surveyed forecasts anticipating a reading this low.
  • Wage and wealth gaps continue to widen: the top 1% hold nearly one-third of U.S. household wealth and roughly 40% of Americans own neither equities nor property.
  • With approval ratings under pressure ahead of the midterm elections, policymakers have increasingly shifted their focus toward the lower-income consumer. The resulting policy mix is likely to remain accommodative, with implications for both the economy and financial markets.

Overview

Not one major asset class ended 2025 in the red. U.S. large-cap stocks ended the fourth quarter up 3% and ended the year up 18%. U.S. small-cap stocks gained 13% over the year after a fourth-quarter gain of 2%. U.S. intermediate-term bonds fared well in 2025, marking their strongest gains in five years. After rising 1% in the fourth quarter, the Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index ended 2025 up 7%.

U.S. intermediate-term bonds delivered their strongest performance in five years in 2025

The “K” Divide

Economic growth was better than expected in the third quarter. Secondary estimates show that the U.S. economy expanded 4.3% quarter over quarter, annualized, well above the 3.3% consensus expectation.1 Growth is expected to slow in the fourth quarter, and annualized quarter-over-quarter GDP growth is projected to be around 1%, bringing the 2025 annual growth rate to roughly 2%. A similar pace is expected in 2026, and consensus forecasts point to an annual growth rate of approximately 2.1%.2

Consumer spending has been a key driver of economic growth

The strength in third-quarter economic growth was driven primarily by resilient consumer spending. Personal consumption rose by 3.5% during the quarter, marking the strongest increase of the year.3 Retail sales data for October (the most recent available data) showed solid spending, partially offset by a 1.6% month-over-month decline in motor vehicle sales.4 Control group retail sales, which feed directly into the GDP calculation for goods consumption, rose 0.8% in October, the largest increase in four months.4 The control group excludes food services, auto dealers, building materials stores, and gas stations. Notably, November “Black Friday” spending grew by just 3% year over year, and buy-now-pay-later usage rose by 9% year over year and has increased by nearly $5 billion over the past three years.5

Spending growth has increasingly been supported by borrowed funds. Aggregate credit card limits have risen to a record $5.3 trillion, constituting a 35% increase over the past five years.6 Outstanding credit card balances now total $1.2 trillion, up 6% over the past 12 months.6 Credit card delinquencies, which had been trending lower, edged higher in the third quarter but remain well below 2008 peak levels.6 This deterioration coincides with a modest uptick in average domestic credit card interest rates at commercial banks, which declined from 22% in the third quarter of 2024 to 21% in the third quarter of 2025
but remains historically elevated.7

High credit card interest rates disproportionately burden lower-income consumers

Graph of credit card interest rates from 1994 to 2025.

Consumer sentiment hit its second-lowest reading on record in November

Rising credit card interest rates disproportionately burden lower-income consumers. These households are more likely to carry revolving balances, have limited access to lower-cost credit, and must allocate an increasing share of income toward interest payments—crowding out discretionary and, in some cases, essential spending. Consistent with this pressure, consumer confidence deteriorated sharply toward the end of 2025. The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment survey experienced its secondlowest reading on record in November (51), surpassed only by June 2022’s reading of 50.8, Sentiment improved modestly in December, ending the year at 53, driven by a slight improvement in expectations for personal finances and business conditions over the coming year.9

Higher-income households are spending confidently, while lower-income households face mounting pressure

Corporate earnings calls reflect the K-shaped dynamic

A “K-shaped” economy describes a period in which parts of the economy move in different directions simultaneously, producing divergent outcomes. Consumer behavior currently reflects this divide: Higher-income households are spending with confidence while lower-income households are buckling under the combined pressure of rising costs and slowing income growth. Bank of America’s credit and debit card data illustrates a Kshaped spending picture. In November, lower-income households recorded a 0.6% yearover-year increase in their three-month average total card spending, compared with a 2.6% increase for higher-income households.10 Middle-income households saw spending rise by 1.4% year over year.10

This spending divergence is also evident in the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book, which
compiles anecdotal evidence from across the twelve Federal Reserve districts on economic activity, labor markets, and inflation. According to the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco:
“Consumers at the lower end of the income distribution continued to reduce their
discretionary spending, including on full-service restaurant dining, elective health care, entertainment, and beauty and personal services… Demand from consumers at the higher end of the income distribution was resilient.”11

Corporate commentary reinforces this narrative. At a conference in early December, Restaurant Brands International’s CEO Joshua Kobza observed:
“We have seen the lower-end consumer be a little bit softer. That’s been pretty persistent throughout this year. And we’ve seen a little bit more strength in the middle and upper tiers.”12

According to PayPal CFO Jamie Miller:
“We are a very middle-income, lower-income, main street America sort of consumer base in our portfolio. We also skew retail and a little bit more discretionary. And when you look at that, we continue to see consumers spending less, trading down, average order values down, and just a shifting in that space.”12 

On the higher-income consumer, Disney CFO Hugh Johnston said during the company’s second quarter earnings call:
“Our consumer, as you know, tends to be at the higher income deciles, and those consumers continue to do well.”12

Echoing this assessment, Citizens Financial President Brendan Coughlin stated during the company’s third-quarter earnings call:
“It’s a K-shaped economy without question. You’re seeing significant stability and growth at the high end and some moderate signs of stress at the low end.”13

The K-shaped dynamic has also become increasingly visible in the labor market,
particularly with wage growth. Since October 2024, there has been increasing disparity in wage growth between the lowest quartile and highest quartile of wage earners. In October 2024, wage growth was broadly aligned across income distribution demographics. Lowand high-income earners recorded nearly identical 12-month gains—4.8% and 4.9%,
respectively.14 By November 2025, that relationship had clearly broken down: Wage
growth for high-income earners was at 4.3% relative to a 3.5% pace for low-income earners.14

The wage growth gap between low- and highincome earners has widened

K-shaped wage growth divergence chart from 1997 to 2025.

By mid-2025, the top 1% held 31% of household wealth, versus 2.5% for the bottom 50%

Wealth accumulation in the U.S. has become increasingly K-shaped. Asset holders—
those invested in real estate or the stock market—have captured the lion’s share of gains while non-asset holders have been largely left behind. By mid-2025, the top 1% of households held 31% of total household wealth, compared with just 2.5% for the bottom 50%.15,16 Over the past decade, house prices have risen 173%, while household ownership of stocks has reached record levels, generating similar wealth gains for investors.17,18,19 Meanwhile, those unable to enter the housing market face rising barriers, and the median age of first-time homebuyers is now 40.20 According to the National Association of Retailers deputy chief economist Jessica Lautz:
“Unfolding in the housing market is a tale of two cities. We’re seeing buyers with
significant housing equity making larger down payments and all-cash offers, while first-time buyers continue to struggle to enter the market.”20

Nearly 40% of Americans own neither property nor equities

A significant share of the U.S. population owns neither property nor equities. According to the Federal Reserve’s 2022 Survey of Consumer Finances, 58% of U.S. households owned equities at that time while a more recent May 2025 Gallup poll suggests ownership has risen modestly to approximately 62% of adults.19,21 The homeownership rate, which captures property ownership at the household level, stood at 65% in the third quarter of 2025, down from a peak of 69% in 2004 and a post-pandemic high of 68% in 2020.22 As a result, nearly 40% of Americans have not participated in the recent appreciation of equity and housing markets. This exclusion has contributed to a widening wealth divide, reinforcing the K-shaped dynamics already evident across spending and income.

The November CPI report took every economist by surprise

Although inflation has decreased significantly from its four-decade high of 9% in June 2022, it has remained above the Federal Reserve’s official 2% target for 56 consecutive months. The latest report shows headline inflation easing to 2.7% year over year in November, largely driven by slowing shelter prices.23,24,25 The shelter component, which represents about 35% of the total CPI calculation, slowed from 3.8% in September 2025 to 3.0% in November, the lowest reading since August 2021.24 The CPI report took every economist by surprise. None of the Bloomberg-surveyed economists predicted this low of a number, and the closest estimate was from Citigroup at 2.8%.25, 26 Nonetheless, external data supports the broader trend, particularly for housing. Zillow and Apartment List show that shelter costs have cooled meaningfully. Apartment List reported a 1.3% month-over-month decline in rents in December—the largest drop since late 2023.27,28

Shelter costs have cooled meaningfully

Graph showing cooling housing price trends from 2018 to 2026.

Recent polls show the cost of living was voters’ top midterm concern

The presidential administration seems poised to focus on affordability in 2026, and it may have little choice if Republicans want to retain control in Congress. A Brookings study from August 2025 found that a president’s approval rating tends to impact the outcome of a midterm election: The higher the approval rating, the lower the losses that the president’s party will experience.29 President Trump’s approval rating remains low, at 36% —the lowest of his second term and second only to the 34% reading at the end of his first term—leaving him potentially vulnerable heading into midterms.29,30 Historical precedent suggests significant House of Representatives losses unless his approval rises well above 50%, which would require stronger support from lower-income households, young voters, and independents.29

A president’s approval rating tends to impact the outcome of a midterm election

Graph shows Trump's approval rating drop to 36%.

Certain states will not allow the elimination of tax on tips and overtime pay

Addressing affordability and inflation—and narrowing the “K”—will therefore be critical. A December 2025 Gallup poll found that 74% of Americans were dissatisfied with the state of the country (the worst reading since January) and identified the economy and inflation
as the top issues.31 Similarly, an October 2025 Ipsos poll found that the cost of living was
the single most important factor for voters when deciding how to cast their ballots at midterms.32

Recent policy proposals suggest affordability is a top priority for 2026. In 2025, one of the most notable initiatives was negotiating direct price reductions on high-cost pharmaceutical drugs, including insulin and weight-loss medications.33,34 The administration also followed through on its promise to eliminate taxes on tips and overtime pay, included in the One Big Beautiful Bill Act.35 In November, the IRS released guidance for workers claiming these deductions for the 2025 tax year; however, the overall impact on these workers may be more muted because some states, including Colorado, Illinois, New York, Maine and the District of Columbia, are prohibiting these provisions, citing budget deficits among other reasons.36,37,38 Approximately six million workers report tipped wages, and the current framework allows for a maximum annual deduction of $12,500 for individuals or $25,000 for joint filers.36

Despite the potential for market volatility during a midterm election year, earnings expectations for 2026 suggest another solid year for U.S. equities. FactSet forecasts midteens S&P 500 earnings growth in 2026, which, if realized, would be the highest since the post-pandemic rebound in 2021.39 Year-over-year earnings growth is currently projected at 15%, and the S&P 500’s estimated net profit margin of 13.9% would mark the highest annual margin since FactSet began tracking the data in 2008.39 Bloomberg currently estimates that the Russell 2000 small-cap index will deliver earnings growth of 56% in 2026, and ex-U.S. international developed markets are expected to see year-over-year earnings growth of 9%.

The S&P 493 is expected to see double-digit growth in 2026

Notably, the S&P 493 (the S&P 500, minus the Magnificent 7 group of companies comprising Apple, Alphabet, Nvidia, Amazon, Meta, Microsoft, and Tesla) is expected to register double-digit growth in 2026—the first such increase in five years.39 Analysts are also projecting a roughly 10% potential gain for the S&P 500 in 2026.40Notably, the spread between the highest and lowest year-end target is the narrowest since 2017.40 Overall, Wall Street’s 2026 S&P 500 forecasts appear uniformly bullish and tightly clustered.

If realized, the S&P 500’s estimated 13.9% net margin would be the highest ever recorded by FactSet

S&P 500 earnings and sales growth forecast 2015-2026.

In December, the Fed began monthly Treasury purchases, signaling policy easing in 2026

A different kind of K is also emerging. In May, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s term will end, meaning the announcement of the next Federal Reserve chair is imminent. Betting markets have two clear frontrunners in what has been dubbed, “A Battle of the Kevins”: Kevin Warsh (39% probability) and Kevin Hassett (40% probability).41 The new chair is widely expected to pursue further rate cuts, despite official Fed projections pricing in only one 25-basis-point cut in 2026, and market expectations are currently pricing in two.42,43 At the December Federal Open Market Committee meeting, the Fed announced it would begin purchasing short-term Treasury securities to maintain an ample level of reserves.44 Treasury bill purchases, otherwise known as quantitative easing, began in December and are expected to run at roughly $40 billion per month.44 The expansion of the Fed’s balance sheet, combined with expectations of further rate cuts, suggests the likelihood of substantially easing of monetary policy in 2026.

Emerging markets rose 34% in 2025, topping all major equity markets

Markets

International markets outperformed U.S. equities throughout 2025. U.S. large-cap stocks
gained 3% in the fourth quarter, finishing the year up 18%. By comparison, international
developed market equities rose 5% in the fourth quarter and ended the year up 32%.
Emerging market equities gained 5% in the fourth quarter, driven by strong performances
in Chile (+25%), Colombia (+18%), and South Africa (+14%). For the full year, emerging
markets advanced 34%, making them the top-performing major equity market in 2025.

U.S. intermediate-term bonds rose 1% in the fourth quarter while international developed
market bonds declined by 2%. U.S. intermediate-term bonds ended 2025 up 7% while international developed market bonds gained 8%.

Gold prices rose 13% in the fourth quarter, reaching a new record high on December 26 and surpassing $4,500 per ounce for the first time. Gold finished 2025 up 65%. After falling to a five-year low of $56 per barrel on December 15, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil ended the year at $58 per barrel. U.S. national average gasoline prices also reached a five-year low, falling to $2.80 per gallon on December 29.

U.S. large-cap stocks ended 2025 up 18%, while smallcaps gained 13%

Gold gained 65% in 2025

Q4 2025 market returns chart by category.

Longer-term Japanese government bond yields reached record highs at the end of 2025

In other international markets, Sanae Takaichi was elected leader of Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party in early October and has since become the country’s first female prime minister. In November, the Japanese government approved a $135 billion (¥21 trillion) stimulus package, focused on inflation relief, including tax cuts, energy subsidies, and household support.45 While supportive of consumption, the package has raised concerns about fiscal discipline. Long-term Japanese government bond yields hit record highs, and the yen has remained near multi-decade lows. Japanese equities have nonetheless performed well, and the MSCI Japan index have increased 25% over the year

The emergence of a Kshaped economy in 2025 will likely shape 2026 policy

Cartoon animals painting numbered mural together.

The administration’s increasing focus on the lower-income consumer is critical for understanding the economic, policy, and market backdrop heading into 2026

Looking Forward

Just as the Mar-a-Lago Accord provided a post-election blueprint from the new administration in 2025, the administration’s increasing focus on the lower-income consumer—the lower line of the “K”—is critical for understanding the economic, policy, and market backdrop heading into 2026.

To date, policymakers appear to be responding to weak consumer sentiment and the
marginal deterioration in income and spending behavior among lower-income households as though the economy is entering a broader slowdown. The Federal Reserve has already pivoted toward a more accommodative stance, lowering interest rates and restarting balance sheet expansion, while deficit spending is expected to remain elevated, with the
federal deficit projected to reach approximately $1.7 trillion in 2026 according to the Congressional Budget Office’s most recent baseline estimates.46

From a forward-return perspective, the starting conditions for U.S. investors are less favorable. U.S. large-cap equity valuations are elevated, credit spreads are near multidecade lows, Wall Street’s return expectations remain broadly optimistic, and 2026 is a midterm election year, which has historically been associated with more muted average returns. That said, we believe the policy backdrop supports staying the course in diversified portfolios, and we continue to see attractive opportunities in a number of differentiated themes—including U.S. small-cap stocks, closed-end funds, business development companies (BDCs), precious metals, and other tactical exposures.

Citations

  1. Bureau of Economic Analysis: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
  2.  Bloomberg: https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2026-investment-outlooks/
  3. Bureau of Economic Analysis: https://www.bea.gov/sites/default/files/2025-12/gdp3q25-ini.pdf
  4.  U.S. Census Bureau: https://www.census.gov/retail/sales.html
  5.  Adobe Analytics: https://news.adobe.com/news/2025/12/adobe-cyber-monday-hits-record
  6.  Federal Reserve Bank of New York: https://www.newyorkfed.org/medialibrary/interactives/householdcredit/data/pdf/HHDC_2025Q3
  7.  Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/TERMCBCCALLNS
  8.  Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UMCSENT
  9. University of Michigan: https://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/
  10. Bank of America: https://institute.bankofamerica.com/content/dam/economic-insights/consumer-checkpointdecember-2025.pdf
  11.  Federal Reserve: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/BeigeBook_20251126.pdf
  12.  The Transcript: https://thetranscript.substack.com/p/12-15-2025-broad-range-of-neutral-free?utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=email&triedRedirect=true
  13. Barron’s: https://www.barrons.com/articles/banks-economy-consumer-spending-delinquencies-e9e24580
  14. Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta: https://www.atlantafed.org/chcs/wage-growth-tracker#Tab1
  15. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WFRBST01134
  16. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WFRBSB50215
  17. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/OEHRENWBSHNO
  18. Markets.com: https://www.markets.com/analysis/us-household-stock-ownership-risks-1181-en
  19.  Gallup: https://news.gallup.com/poll/266807/percentage-americans-owns-stock.aspx
  20.  National Association of Realtors: https://www.nar.realtor/newsroom/first-time-home-buyer-share-falls-to-historiclow-of-21-median-age-rises-to-40
  21. Federal Reserve: https://www.federalreserve.gov/publications/files/scf23.pdf
  22. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/RHORUSQ156N
  23.  Bureau of Labor Statistics: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm
  24.  Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CUSR0000SAH1#
  25.  Bloomberg: https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2025-12-18/cpi-a-great-inflation-report-doesn-t-quitestand-up-to-scrutiny
  26.  Bloomberg: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/live-blog/2025-12-18/us-cpi-report-for-november
  27. Zillow: https://www.zillow.com/research/data/
  28.  Apartment List: https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/national-rent-data
  29. Brookings: https://www.brookings.edu/articles/what-history-tells-us-about-the-2026-midterm-elections/
  30.  Gallup: https://news.gallup.com/interactives/507569/presidential-job-approval-center.aspx
  31.  Gallup: https://news.gallup.com/poll/700241/americans-end-year-gloomy-mood.aspx
  32. Ipsos: https://www.ipsos.com/en-us/cost-living-concerns-will-loom-large-midterms
  33. CNBC: https://www.cnbc.com/2025/12/19/nine-pharma-companies-ink-deals-with-trump-to-lower-drugprices.html
  34.  Wall Street Journal: https://www.wsj.com/health/pharma/u-s-negotiates-lower-prices-for-ozempic-and-14-otherdrugs-c410e72c
  35.  IRS: https://www.irs.gov/newsroom/one-big-beautiful-bill-act-tax-deductions-for-working-americans-and-seniors
  36. IRS: https://www.irs.gov/newsroom/treasury-irs-provide-guidance-for-individuals-who-received-tips-or-overtimeduring-tax-year-2025
  37.  Newsweek: https://www.newsweek.com/map-states-trump-tax-cuts-will-wont-take-effect-11085807
  38.  Washington Examiner: https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/policy/finance/3913592/scott-bessent-slams-bluestates-declining-one-big-beautiful-bill-act-tax-relief/
  39.  FactSet: https://insight.factset.com/sp-500-cy-2026-earnings-preview-analysts-expect-earnings-growth-of-15
  40.  Bloomberg: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2026-01-06/stock-bulls-dominate-in-survey-of-2026-sentiment
  41.  Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/event/who-will-trump-nominate-as-fed-chair
  42.  Federal Reserve: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/files/fomcprojtabl20251210.pdf
  43.  CME FedWatch: https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html
  44.  Federal Reserve: https://www.federalreserve.gov/mediacenter/files/FOMCpresconf20251210.pdf
  45.  CNBC: https://www.cnbc.com/2025/11/21/japans-cabinet-announces-135-billion-stimulus-package-nhk.html
  46.  Congressional Budget Office: https://www.cbo.gov/system/files/2025-01/60870-Outlook-2025.pdf
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Definitions

Asset class performance was measured using the following benchmarks: U.S. Large Cap Stocks: S&P 500 TR Index; U.S. Small & Micro Cap: Russell 2000 TR Index; Intl Dev Large Cap Stocks: MSCI EAFE GR Index; Emerging & Frontier Market Stocks: MSCI Emerging Markets GR Index; U.S. Intermediate-Term Muni Bonds: Bloomberg Barclays 1-10 (1-12 Yr) Muni Bond TR Index; U.S. Intermediate-Term Bonds: Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Aggregate Bond TR Index; U.S. High Yield Bonds: Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Corporate High Yield TR Index; U.S. Bank Loans: S&P/LSTA U.S. Leveraged Loan Index; Intl Developed Bonds: Bloomberg Barclays Global Aggregate ex-U.S. Index; Emerging & Frontier Market Bonds: JPMorgan EMBI Global Diversified TR Index; U.S. REITs: MSCI U.S. REIT GR Index, Ex U.S. Real Estate Securities: S&P Global Ex-U.S. Property TR Index; Commodity Futures: Bloomberg Commodity TR Index; Midstream Energy: Alerian MLP TR Index; Gold: LBMA Gold Price, U.S. 60/40: 60% S&P 500 TR Index; 40% Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Aggregate Bond TR Index; Global 60/40: 60% MSCI ACWI GR Index; 40% Bloomberg Barclays Global Aggregate Bond TR Index.

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