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What We Know So Far

- February 1, 2020

We believe there has been a clear economic impact from the coronavirus across all world economies, although forecast visibility remains limited.
The connectivity of global supply chains and the importance of international sales to U.S. means the coronavirus should have some domestic economic impact as well.
The disease remains largely concentrated in mainland China, yet recent spread to other regions of the world, and the steady increase of known cases, remains troubling.

Coronavirus Covid-19 Impacts Difficult to Forecast

Given the fluidity of the problem and the daily changes in the population affected by the disease, the economic impact associated with coronavirus Covid-19 is decidedly difficult to forecast. Early expectations for Covid-19 impacts have been built around past knowledge of the 2003 SARS virus (another coronavirus strain) outbreak, which was largely contained and short-lived. The first SARS case was detected in the fall of 2002 and the pointed concern over the disease extended to July of 2003. It infected 8,098 people and caused 774 deaths according to the World Health Organization. The domestic economic effect was short-lived as well, as SARS negatively impacted U.S. GDP in late 2002 and early 2003, but growth snapped back late in 2003. Covid-19 has already infected more people, caused more deaths, and the rising trajectory of known cases remains problematic.

So far, forecasters are building-in only modest Covid-19 effects into their GDP projections. However, the International Monetary Fund has warned that protracted virus effects could put downward pressure on its recent forecasts. On Feb. 22nd, the IMF announced it was reducing its 2020 China GDP forecast from 6.0% to 5.6%. The previous forecast was only just set in January. Also on Feb. 22nd, the IMF also adjusted down its World GDP forecast by 0.1% to 3.2%. So far, 53 cases (as of Feb. 25th) of Covid-19 have

Magnus - Market Commentary - February 2020-1
Control of Covid-19 seems to be the primary line of defense and vaccine availability may be 12-18 months out, according to the U.S. government.

been reported in the U.S., according to Johns Hopkins University, and the economic influence, in terms of current forecasts, appears limited to-date (see Table 2). However, China’s slowing economy is expected to negatively impact the global supply chain. The ramifications, we believe, are likely to be negative for international companies and world economies, including the U.S. Overall visibility into Covid-19 effects on corporate profits and overall U.S. GDP growth remains limited, and many current forecasts include only “base-case” outcomes. Further extension of the current pandemic may see forecasters begin to build-in more severe scenarios.

It appears understanding and control of the disease will be the first and most important line of defense for health institutions. The National Institutes of Health (a U.S. governmental agency) has indicated that a vaccine for Covid-19 could be 12-18 months away even with expedited approval from necessary agencies. Various private and public institutions in China, the U.S., Europe and Australia are currently working on a vaccine.

The number of Covid-19 cases and deaths has been increasing daily, although mortality rates, relative to SARS, remain low.
Magnus - Market Commentary - February 2020-2

Capital Market Impacts

From a capital market perspective, we believe investors were initially anticipating Covid-19 could impact economies and markets similar to the 2003 SARS case. That is, a quick handle on the Covid-19 disease could mean swift alleviation of economic impacts and result in a material economic recovery. However, the rising trajectory of Covid-19 cases and the world spread of the disease has now caused doubt in those earlier expectations.

Given the height of equity valuations and the recent run in equity prices, we believe it stands to reason that capital markets would undergo some asset price correction. The lack of visibility around Covid-19’s economic ramifications may keep volatility relatively high over the near-term. This could mean intermittent days of both materially positive and materially negative equity market performance.

We anticipate current volatility and likely negative economic effects from Covid-19 will have western central banks, and potentially fiscal policymakers, taking measures to offset some near-term conditions. AsiaPacific central banks have already pulled several levers in their attempt to add stability to the financial and economic system. In the current environment, western central bank action could be positively reflected in asset prices, although the uncertainty over Covid-19 may still prevail.

In this forum, we have been relatively cautious on capital market conditions coming off a Q4 2019 that, we believe, caused some excess in asset prices. We postulated that some gains in Q4 could be “given back” through a modest asset price correction in Q1 or Q2 of 2020. The presence of Covid-19 uncertainty only serves to amplify that near-term concern.

While we believe the ingenuity of the global health community and some passage of time will cause the alleviation of intensified disease concerns, we believe prudence demands that investors now take time to ensure their capital market risk profiles fit their current life-cycle stage. We believe well -calculated equity exposure should be maintained, although high-beta impulses that may have been brought about by the recent equity run should be repressed and redirected.

Bloomberg consensus forecasts may differ from that of the International Monetary Fund.
These estimates are subject to change based on the trajectory of Covid-19 cases, additional clarity on economic impact, and other factors.
Magnus - Market Commentary - February 2020-3

Risks

Investors should be aware of the risks associated with all portfolio strategies, and variable market conditions. Monetary policy changes, military activity abroad, the level and change in market interest rates, corporate earnings, domestic and foreign governmental policies, global economic data, and other geopolitical events can have a substantial effect on portfolio performance, our macroeconomic theories, and the effectiveness of strategic and tactical portfolio approaches.

DISCLAIMER

Magnus Financial Group LLC (“Magnus”) did not produce and bears no responsibility for any part of this report whatsoever, including but not limited to any macroeconomic views, inaccuracies or any errors or omissions. Research and data used in the presentation have come from third-party sources that Magnus has not independently verified presentation and the opinions expressed are not by Magnus or its employees and are current only as of the time made and are subject to change without notice.

This report may include estimates, projections or other forward-looking statements, however, due to numerous factors, actual events may differ substantially from those presented. The graphs and tables making up this report have been based on unaudited, third-party data and performance information provided to us by one or more commercial databases. Except for the historical information contained in this report, certain matters are forward looking statements or projections that are dependent upon risks and uncertainties, including but not limited to factors and considerations such as general market volatility, global economic risk, geopolitical risk, currency risk and other country-specific factors, fiscal and monetary policy, the level of interest rates, security-specific risks, and historical market segment or sector performance relationships as they relate to the business and economic cycle.

Additionally, please be aware that past performance is not a guide to the future performance of any manager or strategy, and that the performance results and historical information provided displayed herein may have been adversely or favorably impacted by events and economic conditions that will not prevail in the future. Therefore, it should not be inferred that these results are indicative of the future performance of any strategy, index, fund, manager or group of managers. Index benchmarks contained in this report are provided so that performance can be compared with the performance of well-known and widely recognized indices. Index results assume the re-investment of all dividends and interest.

The information provided is not intended to be, and should not be construed as, investment, legal or tax advice nor should such information contained herein be construed as a recommendation or advice to purchase or sell any security, investment, or portfolio allocation. An investor should consult with their financial advisor to determine the appropriate investment strategies and investment vehicles. Investment decisions should be made based on the investor’s specific financial needs and objectives, goals, time horizon and risk tolerance. This presentation makes no implied or express recommendations concerning the way any client’s accounts should or would be handled, as appropriate investment decisions depend upon the client’s specific investment objectives.

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TERMS OF USE

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DEFINITIONS

Asset class performance was measured using the following benchmarks: U.S. Large Cap Stocks: S&P 500 TR Index; U.S. Small & Micro Cap: Russell 2000 TR Index; Intl Dev Large Cap Stocks: MSCI EAFE GR Index; Emerging & Frontier Market Stocks: MSCI Emerging Markets GR Index; U.S. Intermediate-Term Muni Bonds: Bloomberg Barclays 1-10 (1-12 Yr) Muni Bond TR Index; U.S. Intermediate-Term Bonds: Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Aggregate Bond TR Index; U.S. High Yield Bonds: Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Corporate High Yield TR Index; U.S. Bank Loans: S&P/LSTA U.S. Leveraged Loan Index; Intl Developed Bonds: Bloomberg Barclays Global Aggregate ex-U.S. Index; Emerging & Frontier Market Bonds: JPMorgan EMBI Global Diversified TR Index; U.S. REITs: MSCI U.S. REIT GR Index, Ex U.S. Real Estate Securities: S&P Global Ex-U.S. Property TR Index; Commodity Futures: Bloomberg Commodity TR Index; Midstream Energy: Alerian MLP TR Index; Gold: LBMA Gold Price, U.S. 60/40: 60% S&P 500 TR Index; 40% Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Aggregate Bond TR Index; Global 60/40: 60% MSCI ACWI GR Index; 40% Bloomberg Barclays Global Aggregate Bond TR Index.