Enormous cross-currents, winners and losers as parts of the economy have roared back, others slower to respond; Omicron currently an unknown
While we still know little about the Omicron variant, we know that the reaction function and policy response to the pandemic remains significant and unpredictable
COVID-19 delta variant wave spread faster but was less severe than winter 2020 wave; Omicron variant may follow same pattern based on early data
Trends in daily new cases are mixed but with most countries below 2021 peak; notwithstanding Omicron, endemicity may be within sight
Global daily new cases have been trending upwards since late October, but cases are a narrow measure with limited usefulness
Mortality data, while imperfect, is unfortunately also trending higher
U.S. positive test rate at 9.8%; less testing being done but fewer tests per case suggests the virus is still prevalent
U.S., Canada positivity rate has seemingly peaked, many countries continue to see promising declines in positive test rates
Vaccination rates continue to rise globally, albeit at a slowing rate, with 3.3 billion people fully vaccinated globally
59% of the U.S. population is fully vaccinated
Vaccines have helped break the link between excess deaths and new cases
Mortality rates much higher for elderly and pre-existing conditions; mortality rates for healthy kids, teenagers roughly in line with seasonal flu
Measured in terms of total mortality, Covid has been more than 4x worse than bad flu season
Stripping out challenges and inconsistencies in reporting of Covid-specific data, excess mortality numbers appear to be trending lower
In the U.S. and globally restaurant activity fully recovered to pre-pandemic levels; activity in UK, Germany declining as Covid cases rise
Retail, recreation and workplace visits in the U.S. fell sharply after the announcement of the Omicron variant
Manufacturing in developed markets improved at a slower pace in October, emerging markets are expanding at a greater pace
Select manufacturing & services PMIs point to global expansion with the exception of China manufacturing
Dry bulk shipping rates have pulled back sharply from October peak
U.S. large cap stocks have outperformed most asset classes through the crisis, U.S. small cap flat since February, WTI Crude down 23% from peak
Credit spreads have recently widened from July lows
Crypto, midstream energy and micro cap stocks have outperformed since the vaccine rollout began, safe-havens have lagged
The COVID-19 pandemic’s booming asset prices was at odds with past epidemics
U.S. equity sentiment fell sharply after news of Omicron variant (exacerbated by Powell’s comments), S&P 500 had its worst week since September
The VIX jumped to its highest level since January and WTI Crude Oil entered a bear market after news of the Omicron variant broke
Quarantine stock basket continues to trail the broader U.S. stock market, will Omicron put some of these trades back on?
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