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December 2019

2020 Outlook – Politics Matter

Not that the job of capital market forecasting and portfolio management is easy by any stretch, but 2020 sets up as an environment that is the most difficult to call of any in recent memory. In a typical year, the necessary forecasting recipe should be economic fundamentals, earnings, monetary policy, and a dose of market sentiment. The new year requires all of that and perhaps a political prediction acumen that frankly few possess. Coupling the normal political prognostication difficulty with the unprecedented, bifurcated nature of the U.S. election landscape and you
get a jungle of varied, potential outcomes. Despite the additional complexity, we have the job of guiding investors on what we believe is the best way to think about capital allocation in 2020. That indeed is what we will do.